Excerpted from
Change, Logic and Money
by Eric Trailer, Absolute Mortgage Banking
Want another compelling reason why the smart, savvy buyers are acting sooner than later? Because they know that average appreciation rates in California are 8.8% over the last 40 years (yes we all know that the Peninsula is much greater), and today provide an opportunity for both tremendous value and cheap financing. Let’s think about real value for a moment. The last year we had average appreciation in California, it was the year 2001 (8.7%). If we strip out the overbuilt areas of California.., and concentrate specifically on areas where housing expansion is extremely limited, like the Peninsula, one can simply take the median price of comparable homes in 2001, add 8.8% appreciation per year, depreciate appropriate improvements to the property and a value may be derived. Thus, if a would-be buyer can obtain a home at that value or better, and combine the cheap cost financing, that’s an ideal move on a fundamental basis, whether the purchase is for shelter or for investment.
Want more? OK. How about the fact that, since 1968, there have only been four real periods of decline: 1984 (0.1%, so not really), 1990 (only 1.2%, despite the Loma Prieta earthquake in October 1989), 1992-1996 (Average of 2.44% despite a major recession following a major earthquake) and today (yes, believe it or not, there was NO decline for CA as a whole in 2001 when the stock market crashed; in fact, it was up 8.7% in 2001 and up over 20% in 2002. All the more reason why 2001 is a good basis to use.
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